Wednesday, December 3, 2008
India must not repeat U.S. mistakes
ANALYSIS/OPINION:
Reeling from the terrible shock of the attacks on India's commercial capital last week, the authorities in the world's largest democracy may find it logical to follow in the footsteps of a certain world-leading country that considers itself to be spearheading democracy around the world.
But the United States has, domestically and internationally, denied much of its own democratic tradition in its "global war on terror." Now India must resist the temptation to do the same.
The authorities in New Delhi would be well advised to take the time necessary and assess the situation and its potential consequences thoroughly before taking any action they may later regret. As nearly everyone knows, a conflict between India and Pakistan -- countries armed with nuclear weapons -- would bring nuclear mayhem to the subcontinent and beyond.
The urge for vengeance by an enraged public demanding action from their officials is understandable and pushes New Delhi to feel it needs to act. But Delhi's leadership must avoid a path leading to such a precipice in Indo-Pakistan relations.
The attacks on Mumbai by gunmen belonging to a radical Islamist organization killed nearly 200 people and wounded several hundred , some severely. The raids were, in the words of one Indian official, "India's September 11."
The similarities between the two events are numerous.
The attacks on New York City in 2001 and the raids on Mumbai last week targeted financial hubs. By hitting the large Indian business center, whoever is behind the Mumbai attacks wanted to do more than kill all the people they could before seeing the attackers gunned down by security forces. The attackers were aiming to cause greater harm than the deaths of some 200 people and the destruction of hotels and restaurants. (Or in the 9/11 case, the deaths of 3,000 people and the destruction of several buildings.)
Granted, the senseless killings in Mumbai, as in New York, the Pentagon and in a field in Pennsylvania were, in the sick minds of those committing those terrible acts, an added "benefit." But to them, the killing of innocent victims was simply that, merely an added benefit.
In this analyst's opinion, the real intent of those two raids was far more nefarious. The real intent was to disrupt the countries' economies.
In New York, the attacks had a direct effect on Wall Street and, subsequently, on the country's economic situation. Likewise, Mumbai's stock market will be affected by last week's attacks, as will India's economy.
Furthermore, both operations were at the same time ingenious from the terrorists' point of view. They were relatively simple to implement, particularly in open and democratic societies such as India and the United States. And the result will be additional security around hotels.
The central lesson of the 9/11 attacks was that the terrorists had the ability to hijack civilian aircraft and turn them into lethal weapons. The attacks of 9/11 forever changed the way airlines and airports conduct business and the way we look at travel today. Costs for increasing security at airports are passed on to the traveler.
Along similar lines, the attacks in Mumbai last week will forever change the way hotels -- particularly luxury ones -- conduct business. The challenge facing intelligence services worldwide now is to try to identify the next likely targets and take pre-emptive action.
Barely 48 hours after the attacks, India began using strong-worded language, saying that Pakistan was behind the Mumbai attacks. According to Indian security services, the surviving terrorist in custody admitted to being Pakistani and having been trained in Pakistan. Indian authorities also found a cell phone belonging to one of the terrorists, showing several calls made to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
What of the consequences if India follows the U.S. example? What if India is dragged into the vicious cycle of attacks and counterattacks -- verbal, at first -- that could lead to hostile acts and to full-scale war?
Besides the apparent danger that the two countries could reach a point of no return, India risks falling into the same trap the United States found itself in after Sept. 11. The mistakes of the Bush administration were those of enacting undemocratic laws (the USA Patriot Act), and ordering law-breaking government practices (torture, detention and rendition).
For India to go that route would be self-destructive in the extreme. Anti-Muslim sentiments in India can easily spin out of control. There is bound to be a growing desire in Delhi to retaliate, but this is a time for restraint. India, one of the rare democracies in that part of the world, risks alienating its 154 million Muslims.
Even if the attacks on Mumbai may be compared to those of Sept. 11, it is paramount that the aftermath not follow suit.
• Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.
