Monday, December 8, 2008

BEIJING -- Two key gauges of manufacturing in China fell to record lows in November, signaling the country's economic growth will likely slow further in coming months before getting a boost from the government's pro-growth policies.

[china economy purchasing managers' index]

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Monday its Purchasing Managers Index for China fell to the lowest level since the index started in 2005. The November PMI was 38.8, down from 44.6 in October.

CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said its PMI plunged to the lowest level since the index started in 2004, registering 40.9 in November compared with 45.2 in October.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing economy is expanding. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The global slowdown, as well as the slump in the local property market, is hurting China's economy.

The export-order component of both PMIs plunged in November from October, falling 12.4 percentage points to 29.0 in the CFLP survey, and 16.1 percentage points to 28.2 in the CLSA survey.

"Export orders will weaken further and we expect further cuts in production and employment," said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA.

Citing the global downturn, the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and weakening domestic demand, J.P. Morgan economists Monday cut their forecasts for China's economic growth to 7.7% in the fourth quarter from 8.2%, and to 9.2% for all of 2008 from 9.4%.

They predict growth will rebound in the second half next year because of policy measures, bringing 2009 growth to 8%, just off their previous forecast of 8.1%.

Reflecting Beijing's shift in focus to growth and away from inflation, the country's economic planning agency said Monday it has removed price controls on certain foods, such as processed grain products, edible vegetable oil and meat.

In January, when inflationary pressures were on the rise, the government required large producers of such foodstuffs to seek government approval before raising prices.

The PMI for Hong Kong, released Monday by NTC Economics Ltd., fell for a fifth consecutive month to 38.8 in November from 43.1 in October, partly because new orders from China fell at the steepest rate since 1998.

—Jackie Cheung in Hong Kong contributed to this article.